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Investment Markets

At Axiom Wealth we believe that it is important to have a view about where markets are heading. We don't have an infallible crystal ball, but we do source a significant amount of research (both technical and fundamental in nature) from a variety of domestic and international sources.

A lot of advisers talk about what has happened in the market (ie the view through the rear-vision mirror) or "time in the market". We prefer to look at what might lie ahead and use this view to proactively shape client asset allocations (eg the proportion of funds held in cash or defensive assets, versus growth assets) .

We won't always be right but we believe that our clients appreciate that we at least have a view and are prepared to reflect it in the structure of their portfolios to protect against, or capitalize on, potential shifts in the market.

To this end we produce a regular outlook statement for our clients that seeks to summarise key trends in markets, comment on significant (potentially under-estimated) issues and provide a view about where markets might be heading and why.

December 2013
In overall terms, 2013 was a favourable year for global equities. The Australian share market (ASX 200) finished the year up around 15% whilst the US Dow Jones managed to post another record-breaking year returning 26% over calendar 2013. As in previous years, the sector-based performance within the Australian market differed materially. Read more.....
September 2013
We finished the June quarter on a down leg in the Australian equity market – the talk was about the imminent introduction of QE tapering in the US, the Chinese banking system was in trouble and the Australian dollar was falling like a stone. Since the end of July, however, the ASX200 has risen around 10%, finishing on 5,307 as at 30 September'13. Read more.....
June 2013
As global equity markets cruised towards the end of the financial year with significant wind in their sails, a nasty change (which took the form of concerns about tapering of QE in the US and questions over the robustness of China's banking system) sent investors heading for cover. In the space of around a month, the Australian share market lost over 8% of its value, finishing 30 June'13 at 4,802. Read more.....
April 2013
In early January when we last put pen to paper the ASX 200 stood at around 4,700, having just rallied over 8% in the preceding two months. We spoke optimistically about the potential to break through 5,000 points at some point during 2013 founded, in part, on our belief that lower interest rates would induce investors back into equity markets as they chased higher yields. Read more.....
December 2012
The ASX200 rose by around 14.5% over the 2013 calendar year, though this point-to-point increase shrouds the volatility that characterised the Australian share market for most of the year. The turmoil that beset Greece and Europe, which paralysed global stock markets in May'12 and June'12, seems like a distant memory. Read more.....
September 2012
Over the last few months global equity markets have moved higher in light of generally positive steps taken towards stabilisation of the situation in Europe and in anticipation of more supportive monetary policy by central banking authorities. Read more.....
June 2012
After a positive start to the 2012 year for global equity markets, concerns in Europe have again bubbled to the surface and with the inconclusive elections in Greece earlier in May and the prospect of peripheral nations seeking to renegotiate previously agreed austerity packages, investors of all persuasions have headed for the exists. Read more.....
February 2012
The 2012 calendar year has certainly started in a positive way for equity markets.  Most markets have risen in the past two months and the US (Dow Jones) is heading back towards pre-GFC highs.   Sentiment in risk markets has been much more positive, with investors looking for reasons to buy the market rather than sell. Read more.....
November 2011
Since writing last quarter, markets have continued to grind lower under the weight of concerns about Europe. As we feared, policy makers in Europe remain behind the curve and the tardy and iterative nature of responses is continuing to disappoint markets. Read more.....
August 2011
Over the 2010/11 financial year the Australian equity market (ASX 200) rose from 4,285 from the open on 1 July'10 to close at 4,608 on 30 June'11 – a point to point increase of around 7.5%. By contrast, the US market (Dow Jones) rose by around 20% over the same period. Read more.....
May 2011
The 2011 calendar year got off to a positive start, fueled by supportive macro data (here in Australia and overseas), which had positive inferences for corporate earning expectations. This early optimism, however, was fractured by increasing unrest in the Middle East and subsequently, the Japanese earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident. Read more.....
December 2010
In economic terms, 2010 was a very successful year with the global economy rebounding from the depths of the GFC to grow by around 4.5%. It is fair to say that most of the expansion in economic activity was posted by developing & emerging nations - key amongst these being China, Read more.....
July 2010
Over the 2009/2010 financial year the Australian share market returned around 13% (including dividends) – this was the first "up year" in the past three. Equity and risk markets more generally have taken a hammering over the last few years, however, if you average the return from Australian shares for the past six years (including the impact of the GFC) it has been 11.6% per annum.Read more.....
April 2010
Over the last couple of months the Australian market rose by almost 12% to peak at just above 5,000 points in the middle of April 2010. More recently we have seen a correction in share values globally (but particularly in Australia) driven by uncertainty over the economic position in Greece. Read more.....
December 2009
The 2009 calendar year closed with the All Ordinaries posting its strongest yearly increase for 16 years, rising by just on 33%. The market gain since the low in early March'09 was even more impressive with the index rebounding by around 50%.Read more.....
September 2009
The last quarter in local and global equity markets has continued to confirm that the recovery is now well underway. Economic indicators have further improved and corporate profit reports both here and in the US exceeded expectations. The net result was that the S&P 200 rose by around 18% over the past 3 months. Read more.....
June 2009
There has been a lot written and said to describe what we've seen in financial markets over the past twelve months – "unprecedented", "without comparison", "unique", "once in a lifetime", "breath taking" etc. But the proof of the pudding is probably in the key data points, some of which we've summarised below:Read more.....
March 2009
When you ask a market practitioner at the moment "how's business" you may find that you end up with at least three different answers to what appears to be a fairly straight forward question. The problem is that peoples' view of the current state of the "down turn" and the prospects for recovery very much depend upon the prism they are using to look at the world. Read more.....
December 2008
It goes without saying that 2008 was the worst ever post-war year on equity markets. The Australian share market fell around 39% in the calendar year, or around 51% from its highs in November'07 to its (recent) trough in November'08.Read more.....
September 2008
This quarter's update marks the most volatile period in world equity markets for almost a century. The ASX 200 is down 11% for the quarter to 30 September and is down almost 45% since its peak in November 2007. Credit markets have locked up and the US economy is headed into recession.Read more.....

 

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